Can Europe Still Trust the US for Protection?

Shockwaves in Europe: Trump’s Cozy Ties with Putin Raise Alarms

European leaders are increasingly unsettled by US President Donald Trump’s growing rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his vague hints about stepping back from America’s commitment to defending its European allies.

After World War II, Western European nations partnered with the US and Canada to form NATO, ensuring collective security against the Soviet Union. At its core, Article 5 guarantees that an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all.

For decades, the US has been the backbone of NATO. But now, as skepticism grows, even top European leaders are questioning its future. Germany’s incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has made it clear: Europe must reduce its reliance on the US for defense.

“The past week has shown that Trump has weakened NATO, undermined its secretary general, and cast doubt on Article 5,” warned Armida van Rij, head of the European programme at Chatham House.

“The ‘all for one and one for all’ belief has been broken.”

Is NATO’s Collective Defense Promise Now Just an Empty Pledge?

While the Trump administration insists the US is not pulling out of NATO, it has warned that it will no longer tolerate an “imbalanced relationship that encourages dependency.”

Trump has repeatedly pressured European nations to increase their defense budgets. Last year, he even suggested that countries failing to meet their financial obligations could be left vulnerable to Russian aggression.

The most alarming aspect, experts say, is the timing—Europe is facing its biggest security crisis in decades due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Trump’s recent moves have only deepened concerns. Chatham House defense analyst Minna Alander noted that the US president appears to be aligning more closely with Russia.

“It almost looks like Trump has switched sides,” she said.

Some of Trump’s latest actions include:

• Praising Putin in their first direct phone call since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• Holding US-Russia talks last week about Ukraine—without involving Ukrainian officials or European allies.
• Calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator.”
• Echoing Russian propaganda by falsely claiming that Ukraine, not Russia, started the war.

“This war is far more important to Europe than to us,” Trump has stated. “We have a big, beautiful ocean separating us.”

Could NATO Survive Without US Military Power?

For decades, NATO allies have assumed that if a member nation was attacked, the US military would respond in full force. But experts warn that Article 5 does not explicitly require such a commitment.

For example, if Estonia were invaded by Russia, the US could technically comply with Article 5 by sending just a surveillance plane—without committing troops, explained Edward Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute.

“Nothing says the US must deploy its full forces,” he said. “But past presidents have always been expected to do so. Now, that assumption is being questioned.”

The US contributes 70% of NATO’s military power, including:

• 100,000+ troops stationed in Europe.
• Advanced intelligence, logistics, and surveillance capabilities.
• The majority of NATO’s nuclear arsenal.
• Key air support, including aerial refueling and rapid troop deployment.

For decades, the US has been NATO’s undisputed leader. “No single European nation has the military strength to take its place,” van Rij emphasized.

Europe’s Wake-Up Call: Preparing for a Future Without US Support

Long before Trump, US officials had warned that Europe needed to invest more in its own defense. Under Joe Biden, the US made the Indo-Pacific its top security focus, prioritizing competition with China over European affairs—until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine temporarily shifted attention back.

Now, with Trump signaling a retreat, European leaders are scrambling to rethink their security strategies.

Friedrich Merz, following his German election victory, stressed that his top priority is to build Europe’s defense strength so that it can gradually reduce reliance on the US. He even suggested that by NATO’s June summit, the alliance may no longer exist in its current form.

As Germany, France, and the UK form Europe’s “Big Three,” their actions will shape the future of European security. This week, the UK prime minister will visit Washington following French President Emmanuel Macron’s trip there on Monday.

Meanwhile, several European nations are already ramping up their defense spending:

• Denmark announced a major military budget increase last week.
• The UK pledged an extra £13 billion annually, partially funded by cuts to foreign aid. Opposition leader Keir Starmer acknowledged the tough decision, saying, “It’s painful, but national security must come first.”

A New Global Order: The End of US Leadership in NATO?

Edward Arnold believes the world is witnessing a historic shift in security dynamics.

“The US is no longer the ally it once was,” he said. “And it’s very, very unlikely to return to that role.”

Europe now faces a stark reality: If NATO is to survive, it may have to do so without American leadership.