Hope for South Korea’s Population Crisis as Birthrate Rises for the First Time in Nine Years

South Korea’s birthrate rose in 2024 for the first time in nearly a decade, fueled by a surge in marriages, offering a glimmer of hope in the country’s ongoing demographic crisis.

Preliminary data from Statistics Korea revealed that the number of babies born per 1,000 people reached 4.7 last year—the first increase since 2014. The country’s fertility rate, which measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, increased slightly to 0.75 from 0.72 in 2023. The total number of births rose by 3.6% to 238,300, marking an increase of 8,300 newborns.

Despite ongoing political turmoil, government efforts to encourage marriage and childbearing appear to have had some impact, albeit modest.

South Korea’s Demographic Challenge

South Korea has the world’s lowest birthrate and one of the highest life expectancies, a combination that experts warn could lead to long-term economic and social instability. The birthrate remains well below the 2.1 per woman needed for population stability without significant immigration.

Since 2018, South Korea has been the only OECD country with a fertility rate below 1.0—a level the government aims to surpass by 2030. However, tackling the underlying reasons for the declining birthrate has proven difficult. High living costs, intense job competition, and shifting social attitudes—particularly among women—have contributed to reluctance toward marriage and parenthood.

Government Efforts and Policy Shifts

In response, the administration of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol has invested billions in policies aimed at reversing the trend. These include financial incentives for newlyweds, expanded childcare support, and proposed structural changes such as a new ministry dedicated to addressing the issue.

Yoon, who declared martial law in December before facing impeachment, has called the low birthrate a “national crisis”. His fate now lies in the hands of the constitutional court.

Statistics Korea official Park Hyun-jung attributed the rise in births to an ongoing increase in marriages following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions. Marriage rates surged 14.9% in 2024, the largest jump since records began in 1970.

“There has been a shift in social values, with more positive views on marriage and childbirth,” Park said, adding that an increase in the population of people in their early 30s also played a role.

Population Decline and Immigration Considerations

Despite the slight birthrate improvement, South Korea’s overall population is still shrinking. In 2024, deaths outnumbered births by 120,000, marking the fifth consecutive year of natural population decline.

The country’s population, which peaked at 51.83 million in 2020, is projected to drop to 36.22 million by 2072, according to Statistics Korea’s latest estimates.

To address this crisis, officials argue that South Korea must embrace immigration. Joo Hyung-hwan, vice-chairman of a presidential committee on ageing and population, emphasized that the government must broaden its strategy beyond birthrate-focused policies.

“Rather than only focusing on boosting the birthrate, we need a more comprehensive approach, including attracting more foreign residents,” Joo said, as reported by Yonhap News Agency.

As of 2024, foreign residents in South Korea numbered 2.65 million, making up about 5% of the total population. Experts suggest that increasing immigration could help alleviate labor shortages and economic concerns linked to population decline.

While the rise in births marks a positive shift, experts caution that it is still too early to determine whether South Korea has truly begun reversing its demographic decline.

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