Doug Ford Secures Third Term as Ontario Premier Amid Trade Tensions

Doug Ford has won re-election as Ontario’s premier, securing a rare third term for his Progressive Conservative party. His victory comes amid growing concerns over potential U.S. tariffs, particularly those threatened by former President Donald Trump.

A Sweeping Conservative Victory

The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) projected a decisive win for Ford’s Progressive Conservatives, who secured 43% of the vote. Despite already holding a majority government, Ford called the election more than a year early, seeking a stronger mandate to confront Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods. Ontario, a key manufacturing hub that exports heavily to the U.S., would be among the hardest-hit provinces.

“As we stare down the threat of Donald Trump’s tariffs … I will work with every level of government and every political stripe,” Ford declared in his victory speech. “Standing up for Canada will take a full Team Ontario effort.”

Voter Turnout and Challenges in the Province

Ford’s opponents struggled to shift voter focus to domestic issues such as Ontario’s struggling healthcare system. Canada’s most populous province, home to over 14 million people, is facing a severe shortage of primary care providers, with 2.5 million residents lacking access to a family doctor—an increase from 1.8 million in 2020.

Unusually, this election was held in winter, and much of the province was still recovering from heavy snowstorms on election day. By 10 p.m. local time, Elections Ontario reported a voter turnout of just 42.62%.

Trump’s Influence on Canadian Politics

Trump’s potential return to power loomed large over the election, with the former U.S. president suggesting he could use economic pressure to push Canada toward becoming the 51st U.S. state. His presence continues to shape Canadian politics at both the provincial and federal levels, with a national election also expected later this year.

Ford actively campaigned against Trump’s trade threats, even making two trips to Washington, D.C., to advocate against tariffs. He also embraced nationalistic messaging, sporting a hat that read, “Canada is not for sale.”

Impact on Federal Politics

The Ontario election results could have implications for Canada’s federal leadership. University of Toronto politics professor Semra Sevi noted that external factors like Trump’s tariff threats are significantly shaping voter priorities.

“This outcome suggests a potential rebound for the federal Liberals, who have recently been regaining support after a period of decline,” Sevi explained.

As Ford prepares for another term, his leadership will likely remain focused on economic challenges and Canada’s trade relationship with the U.S., particularly as Trump’s influence continues to ripple through Canadian politics.

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