Colombia Faces Threat of Renewed Violence as Armed Groups Exploit Government’s Peace Efforts

Colombia risks a return to its violent past as armed groups take advantage of the struggling peace strategy of President Gustavo Petro, warns former President Juan Manuel Santos, the architect of the country’s landmark 2016 peace deal.

In a rare interview, Santos expressed deep concern over the deteriorating security situation, stating that armed factions are expanding their influence by exploiting the government’s efforts to negotiate peace. “Armed groups are strengthening, fighting among themselves, and seizing more territory as the government struggles to maintain order,” he said.

Santos’ historic peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) saw 7,000 combatants disarm, offering Colombians hope for a more peaceful future. However, setbacks in the agreement’s implementation have allowed new armed groups to emerge, competing for control over illegal activities such as drug trafficking, extortion, and illegal mining.

Petro’s “Total Peace” Strategy Faces Major Setbacks

Upon taking office in 2022, President Petro pledged to negotiate with all major armed groups under his “Total Peace” initiative. However, these talks have largely failed, with repeated ceasefire violations, kidnappings, and civilian casualties forcing the government to suspend negotiations.

In recent months, violence has surged across Colombia, particularly in the northeast, where the country’s largest armed group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), launched an offensive in January. At least 80 people have been killed and 85,000 displaced. In a dramatic escalation, ELN fighters attacked police stations and toll booths in Cúcuta, prompting authorities to impose a curfew on one million residents.

“We thought Petro would correct course, as he promised during his campaign. Instead, we are in a worse situation than two and a half years ago,” Santos remarked.

Rising Violence and Loss of State Control

Data from Colombia’s human rights ombudsman reveals alarming trends:

• Kidnappings have increased by 79% since Petro took office.
• Child recruitment by armed groups has surged by 1,000% over the past four years.
• Armed groups are seizing territory faster than under Petro’s predecessor, Iván Duque.

Petro officially broke off talks with the ELN on January 17, and discussions with other armed groups have either been suspended or terminated. Only one ceasefire, with a FARC dissident faction, remains in effect.

Despite growing criticism, Petro has refused to abandon his Total Peace policy, even as members of his own cabinet question whether the peace process is unraveling.

Santos Criticizes Government’s Approach

Santos believes Petro’s peace strategy lacks the structure and planning needed for successful negotiations. “You need clear objectives, defined red lines, and an understanding of who you are negotiating with,” he explained. “None of that was present—it was improvised.”

He also warned against attempting simultaneous negotiations with multiple armed groups, stating: “Even with FARC, which had a clear hierarchy, it took four years to reach an agreement. Trying to negotiate with 14 different groups at once was doomed to fail.”

Ceasefires have also backfired, allowing armed groups to expand their influence. According to the ombudsman:

• ELN has expanded its presence by 23% since 2022.
• The right-wing Gulf Clan has increased its territorial control by 54%.
• The number of armed factions has grown from 141 to 184.

Santos argues that negotiations with smaller, non-political criminal groups have only legitimized them. “When you negotiate with every armed group, many will emerge simply to exploit the process,” he warned.

Colombia’s Peace Gains at Risk

Santos’ 2016 peace deal with FARC was widely praised, earning him the Nobel Peace Prize and recognition from world leaders. However, he now acknowledges the setbacks. “We did not foresee Duque being such a disaster,” he admitted, referring to his conservative successor, who largely abandoned the deal’s implementation.

The 310-page peace agreement aimed to transform Colombia’s rural areas through land reform, development, and security. But six years later, much of it remains unfulfilled, leaving communities feeling abandoned. Over 300 former FARC combatants have been killed since the deal was signed.

“I wish I had had more time to implement the agreement before leaving office,” Santos reflected.

As violence escalates and peace negotiations falter, Colombia’s fragile stability hangs in the balance, raising fears of a return to the bloodshed of its past.