Berlin:

Friedrich Merz, a politician who has never held a government position, is preparing to take charge of Germany at a time when the country faces its most significant economic and diplomatic challenges in decades. With Europe urgently seeking a new generation of leaders to navigate an era of transatlantic tension, Merz appears set to play a crucial role.

Merz’s conservative party secured first place in Germany’s national election on Sunday, according to projected results, significantly ahead of their closest rival, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). This victory grants him a mandate to form a coalition government.

“Germany will once again be governed reliably,” Merz told his supporters on Sunday evening.

A Remarkable Political Comeback

The election results mark an unexpected political comeback for the 69-year-old. Just seven years ago, Merz was considered a failed politician who had seemingly settled into a lucrative career as a lobbyist and board member of multiple corporations.

A protégé of the late Wolfgang Schäuble, the former finance minister and a symbol of German fiscal conservatism, Merz experienced a rapid rise within the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the early 2000s.

Standing tall with a commanding voice, the arch-conservative Merz was an ideal figure for his party when he first entered elected office in the European Parliament in 1989.

Hailing from Sauerland, a Catholic region in western Germany known for its social conservatism and strong community ties, Merz embodied many of the traditional West German values before the fall of the Berlin Wall—pro-American, business-oriented, and socially conservative.

However, German reunification in 1990 allowed Angela Merkel, the daughter of an East German Protestant pastor, to rise in politics, eventually surpassing both Schäuble and Merz on her way to becoming chancellor.

Challenges in the East and the Rise of AfD

The eastern part of Germany remains Merz’s weak spot. A recent Forsa poll indicated that, unlike his Social Democrat and Green rivals, he is significantly less trusted in the eastern states than in the west.

The AfD, which has gained strong support in eastern Germany, poses another challenge. The party secured first place in a regional election last year, potentially complicating Merz’s ability to govern effectively.

Merz was never the favorite of the CDU’s political strategists, having lost two leadership contests as Merkel’s successor in 2018 and 2021. However, his persistence paid off in 2022 when he finally won the party leadership.

Upon taking office, he pledged to diminish the influence of the far-right AfD by shifting the CDU further to the right, distancing himself from Merkel’s centrist approach. Despite his efforts, the AfD has surged in popularity, increasing from 10% when he took office to around 20% in Sunday’s election, according to projected results.

“I want to do politics in such a way that a party like the AfD is no longer needed in Germany,” Merz stated at a conservative congress in January, blaming Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Green coalition partners for the political conditions that allowed the AfD to grow.

Controversies and Strategic Maneuvers

In January, Merz courted controversy by pushing a parliamentary resolution to tighten migration laws in response to two high-profile killings in which immigrants were suspects. The resolution only passed with the support of the AfD, raising concerns even within his own party about breaking the long-standing political firewall designed to isolate the far-right party.

While Merz has demonstrated sharp tactical instincts—such as exposing Scholz’s indecision on Ukraine by visiting Kyiv in 2022 and successfully challenging a budget ruling that led to the collapse of Scholz’s government—his strategic vision has been questioned.

His willingness to accept AfD support on migration policy has led some to doubt whether he would entirely rule out a coalition with them if necessary to become chancellor.

“I don’t want to suggest Merz plans to form a coalition with the AfD, but my confidence that he won’t do it after the election if it’s his only path to power is gone,” said Ulf Buermeyer, host of the influential State of the Nation podcast.

Merz in the International Arena

Despite internal criticism, some acknowledge that Merz’s pro-American stance, fluency in English, and corporate experience make him a strong candidate for dealing with a potential second Trump presidency.

He was an early advocate of supporting Ukraine against Russia and has indicated he would consider sending Kyiv high-tech Taurus missiles—something Scholz has consistently blocked.

On economic policy, Merz has been vague but has hinted at openness to reforming Germany’s strict constitutional debt limits. These debt restrictions contributed to the downfall of Scholz’s government and have hindered efforts to boost military spending.

A Traditional Conservative Leader

In many ways, Merz remains a politician of the past. After leaving politics, he pursued a lucrative second career at BlackRock, amassing enough wealth to own a private airplane.

His policy agenda includes reversing unemployment benefits and easier citizenship rules introduced by Scholz’s government while enforcing stricter border controls.

Merz has also emphasized the importance of his personal life, stating in an interview that he would leave politics if it ever threatened his 40-year marriage to Charlotte, a judge. “For me, that price would be too high,” he said.

If he assumes office, Merz will be Germany’s first chancellor with children and the first since Helmut Kohl (who left office in 1998) to have never been divorced.

A New Era for Germany?

Merz has actively built relationships with European leaders, some of whom are eager for a shift away from Scholz’s cautious and divided leadership.

“Almost undiplomatic,” is how one European diplomat described France’s enthusiasm for Merz’s potential leadership.

As he prepares to take on Germany’s top job, Merz must now navigate complex coalition negotiations and address the pressing economic and political challenges that lie ahead.