By admin 
The return of Donald Trump to the White House has sent shockwaves across global politics. One of his latest moves? A push for denuclearization, with a focus on Russia and China. Trump reportedly discussed this with Vladimir Putin, who seemed interested, and now plans to put similar arms control proposals before China. Beijing’s response? A cautious “You first”—acknowledging the need but putting the ball back in Washington’s court.
Trump’s Second Attempt at Arms Control
This isn’t Trump’s first go at nuclear diplomacy. His first-term efforts failed spectacularly, leading to the collapse of major arms control agreements. This time, however, things might be different—but also more dangerous.
Speaking at the Oval Office, Trump highlighted the “wasteful” billions spent on nuclear arsenals, money he believes could be better allocated elsewhere. He also acknowledged China’s growing nuclear capabilities, arguing that arms control was essential. However, his call to cut the U.S. military budget in half likely unsettled many at the Pentagon.
Trump sees himself as a master negotiator. He even once offered to lead the INF Treaty talks under Ronald Reagan, which resulted in a landmark arms control deal that removed an entire class of missiles from Europe. That deal was struck when the Soviet Union was collapsing—a case of perfect timing. Now, Trump is looking for his own moment.
Weapon Deals Disguised as Arms Control
Trump’s timing is deliberate. Ironically, in his first term, he withdrew from the INF Treaty, blaming Russia’s non-compliance. He also hesitated to extend New START, hoping to force China into nuclear reductions, despite Beijing having only 280 warheads compared to the 4,000 in the U.S. arsenal.
Today, things are different—yet eerily similar. The U.S. is modernizing its entire nuclear triad, committing $1.7 trillion over 30 years. Trump’s new “Iron Dome” initiative, signed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, is set for delivery within 60 days. This includes:
✔️ New warheads, potentially resuming nuclear testing
✔️ “Usable” tactical nukes like the W76-2
✔️ A shift from targeting Russia to focusing on China, per the Department of Defense’s “pacing challenge”
Trump is likely to present these shifts as part of an arms control deal—essentially an exchange of old weapons for new ones, while discouraging China and Russia from modernizing further.
Russia: Ready to Talk?
Unlike China, Russia has already adhered to START limitations, even continuing data exchanges despite cutting off the Bilateral Consultative Commission after its invasion of Ukraine.
While the Biden administration saw Russia as an “acute threat”, its 2024 Nuclear Posture Review noted that Moscow had expanded its nuclear doctrine, including scenarios involving non-nuclear states allied with nuclear powers—clearly a response to NATO’s expansion.
Trump has flipped the script, calling Zelenskyy a “dictator”, condemning U.S. spending on Ukraine, and blaming NATO for escalating tensions. This has undoubtedly endeared him to Putin.
Despite its nuclear arsenal, Russia’s modernization has stalled due to delays in key programs like the Sarmat missile system. Most of its arsenal is still Soviet-era. Entering arms reduction talks would buy Russia time, open up diplomatic channels, and—if China joins—give Moscow even more leverage.
China’s ‘Minimal’ Deterrent—For Now
China’s response? Classic diplomacy. Beijing insists that the U.S. and Russia must drastically cut their arsenals first before expecting others to join. China maintains only “minimum nuclear deterrence,” it says—while quietly expanding at an unprecedented pace.
According to the U.S. Defense Department, Beijing has:
🔺 Built 300+ new ICBM silos in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, far from U.S. naval threats
🔺 Rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, aiming for 1,000+ warheads by 2030
🔺 Shown reluctance to engage in arms control talks, historically avoiding transparency
However, a rare U.S.-China nuclear discussion took place in 2023 between Sun Xiaobo (China’s arms control director) and Mallory Stewart (U.S. assistant secretary of state). The meeting was constructive but inconclusive.
India: Time to Prepare?
If Trump’s strategy gains traction, New Delhi should brace for pressure. Washington may push for all nuclear powers to engage in talks—an unrealistic goal, but one that could increase scrutiny on India, Pakistan, and even North Korea.
For India, any move toward nuclear transparency poses risks, especially given its triangular deterrence posture against China and Pakistan. If Trump is serious about leaving a nuclear legacy, India may need to “build up to bring down”—modernizing its own arsenal before negotiating any reductions.
Final Takeaway
Trump’s disruptive diplomacy has set the stage for high-stakes arms control negotiations—or a dangerous escalation. While Russia sees an opportunity, China remains cautious, and India must prepare. One thing is clear: this nuclear chess game is just beginning.
Gill Bikram Singh