By Gill Bikram Singh 
Just months ago, most Canadians expected a decisive Conservative victory in the next federal election. But the political landscape has shifted dramatically.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic threats against Canada have unexpectedly revitalized Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s struggling Liberal Party, narrowing the once-commanding Conservative lead in the polls.
Trump’s aggressive rhetoric—calling for Canada to become “the 51st state” and imposing hefty tariffs—has refocused voter priorities, pushing domestic concerns aside.
“Trump’s actions have overshadowed everything else,” says Luc Turgeon, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa.
This shift has even boosted Trudeau’s personal approval rating by 12 points since December, despite his upcoming resignation. On Sunday, the Liberals will announce their new leader, who will face two immediate challenges: responding to Trump’s threats and deciding when to call an election.
Who Will Replace Trudeau?
The next federal election must take place by October 20, though it could be called sooner. Until recently, polls pointed to a Conservative landslide under leader Pierre Poilievre, who has gained support by focusing on cost-of-living issues, crime, and healthcare struggles.
However, Trump’s aggressive policies—including 25% tariffs on Canadian imports—have shifted public opinion. Analysts warn the tariffs could cost Canada up to a million jobs and push the economy into recession.
Trudeau has strongly pushed back, calling Trump’s reasoning—blaming Canada for fentanyl smuggling—“bogus and unjustified.” He even warned that Trump aims to “collapse Canada’s economy to make annexation easier.”
With economic security now a top concern, the Liberals’ new leader will have to prove they can stand up to Trump.
The Conservative Shift
Despite maintaining a lead, the Conservatives have seen support slip, now polling at around 40%, while the Liberals have rebounded to just over 30%.
To adapt, Conservatives have rebranded their messaging, moving from “Canada is Broken” to the more patriotic “Canada First.”
Meanwhile, the Liberals are working to tie Poilievre to Trump, branding him as “Canada’s version of Trump.” Poilievre has downplayed the comparisons, and even Trump himself has dismissed him as “not MAGA enough.”
Still, the most significant political shift may come from Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and a frontrunner to replace Trudeau. Carney’s background in handling economic crises—such as the 2008 financial crash and Brexit—has bolstered his appeal against Trump’s trade war.
However, Carney has faced scrutiny over his role at Brookfield Asset Management, a Canadian investment firm that moved its headquarters to New York while he was chair. Critics argue his loyalty to Canada is in question, a point Conservatives are now hammering in their attacks.
The Road Ahead
As Canadians rally against Trump’s tariffs—boycotting U.S. goods and canceling trips to America—the political climate remains fluid. With national pride surging, voters must decide whether the Liberals’ new leadership or the Conservatives’ economic promises will better defend Canada’s interests.
Regardless of who wins, one thing is clear: Trump’s influence on Canadian politics is far from over.